A Tale of Two Surrogate Endpoints: Blood Pressure and Proteinuria as Predictors of Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes

Doctors often use “surrogate endpoints” – measurable signs like blood pressure and urine protein – to predict long-term health outcomes. Lowering blood pressure and reducing proteinuria both signal better heart and kidney protection, but not all medicines have the same benefits. Some drugs, such as ACE inhibitors, ARBs, and aldosterone blockers, protect kidney and cardiovascular function, while others may lower these surrogate endpoints without offering the same protection. Although neither are blood pressure medicines per se, SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 agonists alter proteinuria and confer kidney and cardiovascular protection, with each drug class having a unique benefit profile. Understanding the nuances of surrogate markers helps patients and clinicians choose treatments that effectively decrease the risk of kidney and cardiovascular disease, not just improve surrogate endpoints. 

Understanding Surrogate Endpoints

In medical research, a surrogate endpoint is a measurable sign or marker used as a stand-in for a direct health outcome. For example, instead of waiting to see if a treatment prevents heart attacks or kidney failure, researchers may look at how much it lowers blood pressure or urine protein [1]. These measures serve as early indicators that treatment may ultimately reduce long-term risks [2].

Blood Pressure: A Marker of Cardiovascular Health

High blood pressure is one of the strongest predictors of heart attack, stroke, kidney disease, and dementia. Lowering blood pressure clearly improves outcomes, but in addition to the degree of blood pressure control, benefit also depends on the type of medication used. For example, thiazide diuretics and calcium channel blockers excel at stroke prevention [3]. And when ACE inhibitors and ARBs are used for blood pressure control, they confer additional kidney protection compared to other classes of antihypertensives, when blood pressure control is the same [4]. Beta blockers are less cardiac-protective than once thought, partly because today’s patients receive better overall cardiovascular care [5]. Loop diuretics may mildly lower blood pressure, but they also enhance the release of the kidney hormone renin, which raises blood pressure, making them non-ideal as antihypertensives blood pressure control and for kidney and cardiovascular protection [6].

Proteinuria: A Sign of Microvascular Damage in the Kidneys, and Elsewhere

Proteinuria – protein leaking into the urine – represents glomerular barrier injury and predicts worse long-term renal and cardiovascular outcomes, independent of glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Proteinuria is one of the earliest signs of kidney damage and is also a marker of microvascular stress throughout the circulation. Proteinuria is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease [7]. Lowering urine protein slows kidney decline and lowers cardiovascular risk [8].

Beyond RAAS Blockade: SGLT2 Inhibitors and GLP-1 Receptor Agonists

Recent studies have shown that SGLT2 inhibitors – originally developed for diabetes – have significant renal and cardiovascular protective effects, even in patients without diabetes. These drugs reduce proteinuria and slow the progression of renal decline [17, 18, 19]. GLP-1 receptor agonists, another class of diabetes medications, also reduce proteinuria and inflammation, leading to fewer cardiovascular and kidney complications [20, 21]. These two drug classes complement each other and also complement traditional RAAS blockade, all working together to reduce risk [22].

How Different Drug Classes Affect the Kidneys and Blood Pressure

Drug ClassBP ReductionProteinuria ReductionKidney ProtectionKey Mechanism
ACEIs/ ARBsStrongStrongStrongEfferent arteriolar dilation; reduce intraglomerular pressure [9]
Thiazide DiureticsModerateModerateMildEnhance effects of ACEIs/ARBs; mitigate NaCl overload [10]
Loop DiureticsMildMinimalNoneCause excessive renin/RASS stimulation [11]
Calcium Channel BlockersStrongMinimalNoneBeneficial for BP control; limited benefit for renal hemodynamics [12]
Beta BlockersModerateNoneNoneLess effective for stroke; no effect on kidney outcomes [13]
Aldosterone BlockersMildModerateStrongReduce kidney fibrosis and scarring; additional RAAS blockade [14]
SGLT2 InhibitorsMildStrongStrongRestore tubuloglomerular feedback; reduce hyperfiltration [15]
GLP-1 AgonistsMinimalMildModerateReduce albuminuria, kidney inflammation, and CV risk [16]

Take-Home Points

  • Surrogate endpoints such as BP and proteinuria are clinically useful predictors of major outcomes but the benefits from their control are not interchangeable among therapies.
  • ACEIs, ARBs, and aldosterone antagonists (RAAS blockers) remain the cornerstone for renal protection.
  • Thiazides potentiate the antiproteinuric effect of RAAS blockade; loop diuretics do not.
  • SGLT2 inhibitors now stand as proven renoprotective agents even in non-diabetic CKD and enhance the benefits of RAAS blockade.
  • GLP-1 receptor agonists confer modest renal benefit and robust cardiovascular protection.

References

1. Fleming TR, Powers JH. (2012) Biomarkers and surrogate endpoints in clinical trials. Stat Med. 31(25): 2973-2984.

2. Claudel SE, Verma A. (2025) I Albuminuria in Cardiovascular, Kidney, and Metabolic Disorders: A State-of-the-Art Review. Circulation Mar 11;151(10):716-732.

3. Fretheim A et al. (2012) Comparative effectiveness of antihypertensive medication for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: systematic review and multiple treatments meta-analysis. BMC Med 10, 33.

4. Ndumele CE et al. (2023) A synopsis of the evidence for the science and clinical management of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome: a scientific statement from the American Heart Association. Circulation 148.20:1636-1664.

5. Ziff OJ et al. (2020) Beta-blocker efficacy across different cardiovascular indications: an umbrella review and meta-analytic assessment. BMC Med May 5;18(1):103.

6. Tamargo J et al. (2014) Diuretics in the treatment of hypertension. Part 2: loop diuretics and potassium-sparing agents. Expert Opin Pharmacother Apr;15(5):605-21.

7. Mulè G et al. (2017) Subclinical Kidney Damage in Hypertensive Patients: A Renal Window Opened on the Cardiovascular System. Focus on Microalbuminuria. Adv Exp Med Biol. 956:279-306.

8. Heerspink HJ et al. (2023) Change in Albuminuria and GFR Slope as Joint Surrogate End Points for Kidney Failure: Implications for Phase 2 Clinical Trials in CKD. J Am Soc Nephrol. Jun 1;34(6):955-968.

9. Lewis EJ et al. (1993) The effect of angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibition on diabetic nephropathy. The Collaborative Study Group. N Engl J Med. Nov 11;329(20):1456-62.

10. Agarwal R et al. (2021) Chlorthalidone for Hypertension in Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease. N Engl J Med. Dec 30;385(27):2507-2519.

11.Martínez-Maldonado M et al. (1990) Role of macula densa in diuretics-induced renin release. Hypertension. Sep;16(3):261-8.

12. Blum MF et al. (2024) Dihydropyridine Calcium Channel Blockers and Kidney Outcomes. J Gen Intern Med. Aug;39(10):1880-1886.

13. Jones DW, et al. (2025) 2025 AHA/ACC Guideline for the Prevention, Detection, Evaluation and Management of High Blood Pressure in Adults. Hypertension. Oct;82(10): e212-e316.

14. Yuan CY et al. (2024) Effects of Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonists for Chronic Kidney Disease: A Systemic Review and Meta-Analysis. Am J Nephrol. 2024;55(1):1-17. doi: 10.1159/000534366. Epub 2023 Oct 4.

15. Heerspink HJL et al. (2020) DAPA-CKD Trial Committees and Investigators. Dapagliflozin in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease. N Engl J Med. Oct 8;383(15):1436-1446.

16. Badve SV et al. (2025) Effects of GLP-1 receptor agonists on kidney and cardiovascular disease outcomes: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. Jan;13(1):15-28.

17. Herrington WG, (2023) Empagliflozin in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease. N Engl J Med. Jan 12;388(2):117-127. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2204233. Epub 2022 Nov 4.

18. Romagnani P. (2025) SGLT2 inhibitors in CKD: are they really effective in all patients? Nephrol Dial Transplant. Sep 29;40(10):1838-1842.

19. An Y, Zhang H. SGLT-2 Inhibitors: A Deeper Dive into Their Renal Protective Properties beyond Glycemic Control and Proteinuria Reduction. Am J Nephrol. Jun 18:1-13.

20. Sasaki T et al. (2025) The effect of GLP-1 receptor agonists on renal outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Nephrol Dial Transplant. Sep 22: gfaf193.

21. Rivera FB et al. (2024) Cardiovascular and renal outcomes of glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists among patients with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus: A meta-analysis of randomized placebo-controlled trials. Am J Prev Cardiol. May 7; 18:100679.

22. Alicic RZ (2025) Combination therapy: an upcoming paradigm to improve kidney and cardiovascular outcomes in chronic kidney disease. Nephrol Dial Transplant. Feb 5;40(Supplement_1: i3-i17.